Firstly, has anyone ever experienced playing against a short shoe and was able to confirm 100% that it was a short shoe (not just suspect it was short because of losing streak)?
Secondly, how obvious is it, that you are playing against a short shoe or is it simply not noticable in the short term?
I have not (knowingly) played a game with a short deck, no.
It would obviously depend on how short the shoe is for the confidence to know it’s short. Taking it to the extremes, if a 6 deck shoe is missing 50 tens, that’s going to be extremely noticeable and shouldn’t take too long to figure it out. On the other hand, if it’s missing a single ten, then you’ll probably never figure it out. Granted, neither of these extremes is likely to happen because the first is way too obvious and the second one doesn’t have enough of an impact to change the HE much.
As far as notice-ability, it’d also depend on what you’re using to gauge that. If you’re just going by money won vs lost, it’s going to be a bit harder, especially if the shoe is shorted by about 1 TC. If you’re going by count, then it’s going to be a bit easier, since the shoe should tend to end around a positive RC (frequency depends on how shorted it is).
Of course, you’d also have to be paying attention and it has to be something you’re kinda actively looking for or at least be aware of it. I’ve had plenty of times where I’d sit at a table and count rises. Go to another table, count rises. Another one, same thing. I’d think wow, what a great session, all the tables I sat down on went positive pretty quickly and I didn’t have to mess around much with minimum bets, very nice. The idea the casino is cheating didn’t really cross my mind because I had a great session and all the tables went positive nicely.