NFL Draft Prop Bets for 2019 – Which Quarterback Prospects Will Be Drafted on Day One?

NFL Draft Prop Bets for 2019

The 2019 NFL Draft is not one loaded with elite quarterbacks. Rather, it’s dominated by elite pass rushing talent.

For the longest time, Ed Oliver was in the mix to be the #1 overall pick, and not too long after, it was Nick Bosa that felt like a sure thing.

Those are just two star talents on the defensive side of the football that could have gone first overall. They’re still cemented as first-round picks — if not top-10 locks — but momentum up top has seen them slide.

The Arizona Cardinals are to thank for that.

Bosa and Oliver are still highly touted, game-changing pass rushers, but Arizona’s reluctance to back would-be franchise passer Josh Rosen has many mock draft experts assuming Kyler Murray is headed for the desert.

Our own Michael Wynn said as much months ago, and he (and most everyone) hasn’t changed his stance since.

Murray to Arizona is slated to set up a domino effect, one that will push arguably more deserving talents down, send Josh Rosen packing, and also inflate the quarterback position in general.

We’ve seen this in past drafts. The first quarterback goes, and suddenly anyone without an answer under center overreacts in hopes that reaching for a quarterback solves their problem.

Maybe it will, maybe it won’t.

You can’t know until you take that leap of faith, and going into the 2019 NFL Draft, there may be the perfect mixture of viable passing prospects and desperate teams to make bettors some money if they target this NFL Draft prop bet.

NFL Draft Prop – Quarterbacks Drafted

The top NFL Draft betting sites host awesome player prop bets every single year, and one wager that is about as good as any offers the ability to predict how many players at a certain position will be drafted.

Given that Kyler Murray will get the buzz going early around the quarterback position, one of the more interesting 2019 NFL Draft prop bets will be how many passers get selected in the first round.

Murray almost certainly gives us one, while there have been several names talked about as round-one candidates for months.

Top NFL Draft betting sites like currently start the bidding at 3.5, which means you need to pick a side. Will three or fewer quarterbacks hear their name called on day one of the 2019 NFL Draft, or will 4+ get drafted?

Here are the odds for how many quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round this year.

Over 3.5-170

Under 3.5+140

Vegas either believes four or more quarterbacks will be drafted in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, or the oddsmakers think that’s what you believe.

Either way, the logic looks pretty good at first glance, as there are certainly four quality passers entering this draft, and you might be able to stretch that number to five or six.

The question, of course, is whether or not four are actually locks to be taken in round one. You will also want to factor in need across the league before pulling the trigger on this NFL Draft prop bet.

Which Teams Could Draft a Quarterback?

Before you can bet on which quarterbacks could be drafted in round one of the 2019 NFL Draft, you first need to gauge which teams actually are likely to chase down a passer that early.

Past years warn us that reaching for a non-first-round talent can set franchises back quite a bit.

For every draft class featuring studs like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, there are several more with flashing red lights telling teams to steer clear of the likes of Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, and so many others.

Whether it be a glaring need or a tepid look to the future, how many teams realistically could take the plunge in round one?

Here is every team I think could/should consider drafting a quarterback in the first round this season.

  • Miami Dolphins
  • New England Patriots
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Oakland Raiders
  • Denver Broncos
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • New York Giants
  • Washington Redskins
  • Green Bay Packers
  • Detroit Lions
  • New Orleans Saints
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Arizona Cardinals

If you want to place this bet based simply on teams having a need for 2019 or beyond, the initial reaction is to bet on the over (-170).

Miami, Denver, New York, and Washington have straight-up messes under center. Perhaps veterans like Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, and Case Keenum can keep their teams above water for another year, but it’s not a lock, and none of those guys are long-term solutions.

There are also the Raiders, Lions, Bucs, Bengals, and Cardinals, who presently seem fine at quarterback but could be in the market for a big change. I don’t think anyone ever knows what Jon Gruden is thinking, while Arizona is either moving on from Josh Rosen or successfully pulling off the most obnoxious smokescreen in NFL Draft history.

Are the Lions done with Matthew Stafford? Can the Bengals upgrade over Andy Dalton? Does Bruce Arians like one of these rookies better than Jameis Winston?

These questions need answering, but the fact that I can confidently approach them as viable concerns for these franchises may tell you all you need to know.

The Packers, Chargers, Saints, and Patriots all have elite presences under center and may not be in a rush to reach for their next franchise passer. However, injury or retirement can change that in a hurry, and not having some type of contingency plan can be an ugly scene.

Subtract or add as needed here, but based off of my list, up to 13 NFL teams could realistically opt to draft a quarterback in the first round. Obviously not all 13 will, but the fact that they’re competing for a select few competent quarterbacks may only add to the allure (and urgency) of making a bold move in round one.

Which Quarterbacks Could Be Drafted in the First Round?

The other question you need to answer is which college football quarterback prospects are actually good enough to garner serious interest from NFL teams in round one.

I took an early look at this with my 2019 NFL Draft player rankings, but the order is going to be fluid.

By now, you’ve surely heard about Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins. Perhaps you’ve even heard about Drew Lock and Daniel Jones. But are these guys all first-round locks, and are there other passers you need to consider?

I say yes to both questions. Here’s the rundown of the top college quarterbacks and why they should be legit contenders to be taken in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft.

Kyler Murray – Oklahoma

An elite athlete with a good arm and high-level production against stiff competition, Murray looks like the total package for the next level. The only real concerns here are that Murray really only produced for one season and is pretty small in stature.

Russell Wilson and Drew Brees have proven in the past that size isn’t everything, of course. Murray has the escapability to make it a non-issue and can win both inside and outside of the pocket.

Even if Arizona doesn’t make him the #1 overall pick (though they will), Murray is a lock to go in the first round. He’s just too talented.

Dwayne Haskins – Ohio State

There are whispers that Haskins is set for a draft day slide, and like Murray, some could view Haskins as a one-year wonder.

Haskins admittedly got a lot of help from Ohio State’s slew of explosive weapons, too, but the kid can throw the ball as well as anyone and has the size and toughness to be a maestro from inside the pocket.

A lack of experience and virtually no mobility are question marks, but Haskins could slice up NFL defenses at the next level. He might slide a bit, but he’s still a lock for round one.

Drew Lock – Missouri

For the longest time, I was in the minority in thinking Lock might actually be the most tantalizing passing prospect in this year’s draft. It seems Lock’s alluring arm strength, mobility, and playmaking tendencies have others warming up to his ascending draft stock.

That may actually cause Lock to be a mild reach, as he does have accuracy and consistency issues. Still, the kid is a freak arm talent and reminds me of Patrick Mahomes.

If he can sit for a year, he’s got everything he needs to be a star. That should get him in the first round, and it may not even be a quarterback-needy team that pulls the trigger.

Daniel Jones – Duke

I think the top three quarterbacks are for sure going in round one. The tricky part is deciding if the next few guys can produce at least one lock to join that group.

Jones is the next guy up, as he’s got some nice dual-threat ability and has drawn comparisons by some to Carson Wentz. I won’t go that far, but Jones is certainly talented and has all the traits NFL teams want in a starting quarterback.

The questions with Jones include the level of competition he faced, a modest completion percentage, a lack of high-level success in terms of winning at the college level, and less than desirable production.

Jones isn’t a freak in any regard, but he does everything at a solid level, and some feel he makes more sense as a day-two pick. The question is if someone falls in love with him and reaches for him late in round one.

Will Grier – West Virginia

The same question can be asked about Will Grier, who is also not an amazing athlete and doesn’t have a cannon arm. Grier was extremely productive at West Virginia and had a penchant for the big play, though, and that kind of moxie shouldn’t be overlooked.

I’m not fully convinced he’s so much Baker Mayfield and not just another Case Keenum, but only time will tell. The reality is he was productive and has the ability to win from the pocket. The lack of fear for chasing big plays should help him in the pros, too.

None of this necessarily cements Grier as a day-one prospect for me, but much like Jones, it’ll only take one team to fall in love with his personality and gusto to take him early.

Ryan Finley – N.C. State

There aren’t many other quarterbacks people would chase in the first round, but I think we can include N.C. State product Ryan Finley.

If there is one word to describe Finley, it’s consistent. He’s been very reliable and knows how to read the field and move the chains. The questions, of course, lie with his arm strength and a lack of elite production at the college level.

I don’t come away floored by Finley in any regard, but he’s clearly a smart player who reads defenses well, makes the right call more often than not, and is also very accurate. All of that can often be much more important than arm strength or athleticism, so the first-round flirtation really isn’t that absurd.

Finley strikes me more as a day-two prospect, but teams looking for a stable presence under center may value him more than the scouts seem to.

How Many Quarterbacks Will Be Drafted in Round One?

In breaking down each quarterback individually, I definitely can see the interest in betting on the under. There are probably only three true first-round talents at the quarterback position when you look at size, arm strength, athleticism, and production.

However, we all know by now that how you perform in shorts and what you do production-wise in college doesn’t tell the whole picture. There are plenty of quarterbacks (Tom Brady, anyone?) who don’t always make the sexy play but do everything else right and flat-out win games.

If someone believes Jones, Grier, or Finley can be that guy, why not spend a middle-to-late first rounder or even trade back into the bottom of round one to get that player?

Making a case for any of these last three passers isn’t easy, but as a collective, I do think the draft puts four quarterbacks on the board when it’s all said and done. The talent is mostly there, and the need for quality passing in 2019 and beyond is just too great.

Some teams just don’t have any kind of an answer under center right now. Others may need to be open to competition or a transition. Then there are the current contenders who have aging commodities and need to think about the bigger picture.

With as many as 13 teams realistically considering going after a quarterback early in the 2019 NFL Draft and perhaps five viable signal callers, I think the over (-170) is the right play.

PICKOver 3.5-170


NFL Draft Prop Bets for 2019 – Which Quarterback Prospects Will Be Drafted on Day One?

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NFL Draft Prop Bets for 2019 – Which Quarterback Prospects Will Be Drafted on Day One?


Kyler Murray is the talk of the top of the 2019 NFL Draft, but which other quarterbacks could hear their name called in round one?


Noah Davis

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